Monday, February 15, 2010

What did Prof. Jones really say?

Did Phil Jones really say global warming ended in 1995?

Duh, no. All you have to do is read the BBC interview. But we shan't expect too much from Daily Mail journalists or WattsUpHisButt, esp. when it comes to reading & comprehending the actual science.
BBC: How confident are you that warming has taken place and that humans are mainly responsible?
Phil Jones: I'm 100% confident that the climate has warmed. As to the second question, I would go along with IPCC Chapter 9 - there's evidence that most of the warming since the 1950s is due to human activity.
And what in tarnation does IPCC Chapter 9 say about understanding & attributing global warming & climate change, you might ask?
Human-induced warming of the climate system is widespread. Anthropogenic warming of the climate system can be detected in temperature observations taken at the surface, in the troposphere and in the oceans. Multi-signal detection and attribution analyses, which quantify the contributions of different natural and anthropogenic forcings to observed changes, show that greenhouse gas forcing alone during the past half century would likely have resulted in greater than the observed warming if there had not been an offsetting cooling effect from aerosol and other forcings.
In fact, the science shows that, without human-caused greenhouse gases, reduced solar activity & other natural causes would likely have cooled the planet. How cool is that?
It is extremely unlikely that the global pattern of warming during the past half century can be explained without external forcing, and very unlikely that it is due to known natural external causes alone. The warming occurred in both the ocean and the atmosphere and took place at a time when natural external forcing factors would likely have produced cooling.

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